Exact(22)
I have a query in to Ben Santer, the leader of last year's Livermore analysis of the difference between trend and variation on short time scales, and will add his thoughts when they come in.
One of the freshest approaches I've seen to conveying a vital scientific and statistical idea came from Norwegian TV, in a simple animation showing, through an overhead view of a man walking a dog, the difference between trend and variation.
After my post the other day looking at a Norwegian effort to use a man walking a leashed dog to illustrate the difference between trend and variation, I got in touch with Olson afresh, both to get his reaction to that animation and talk more generally about ways to get beyond what he calls "the nerd loop" in climate communication.
In view of these advantages, it is convenient to apply the method of Perron and Wada (2009) for the decomposition of Peruvian GDP between trend and cycle.
Using the average growth rate of GDP of 4% from 1976-1991, the difference between trend GDP and actual GDP from 1992-1998 is around ¥340 trillion or about 68% of GDP.
The disparity between trend vectors calculated by the GSTA method and observational data shows that the assumption of McLaren and Bowles (1985) is not appropriate in this case, probably because the dominant sediment-transport processes are mixed.
Similar(38)
It uses a panel of three thousand kids a year from across the country and divides up their answers by sex and age, but it doesn't distinguish between regions, or between trend-setting and mainstream respondents.
This plunge in savings reflects an extraordinary disparity between trends in personal income and spending.
This distinguishes between trend-seekers and pattern-seekers, and trading as a system or an art.
We must mention at this point cross-fertilization between trends.
They will differentiate between trends and futures research 2).
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
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