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It rules it out by demanding that the inaccuracy of a credence function at a world supervenes on the Euclidean distance between the credence function and the omniscient credence function at that world.
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Let P be the credence function you ought to have upon first awakening.
In each of these cases, we identify a particular feature of a credence function the proximity of its credences to being calibrated, or their proximity to the omniscience credences we claim that it is the source of all epistemic utility, and we attempt to characterize the mathematical functions that legitimately measure the extent to which the credence function has that feature.
Indeed, for van Fraassen, it is determined entirely by the credence function together with the form of the propositions in \(\mathcal{F}\) (van Fraassen 1983: 299).
The problem is that an agent can move closer to calibration at a world \(w\) while moving uniformly further from the omniscient credence function at that world: that is, the measure of epistemic disutility provided by the distance of the credence function from its perfectly calibrated counterpart is not truth-directed.
If it could always be guaranteed that one of the credence functions that does the accuracy dominating does not have some other epistemic vice to a greater degree than does the credence function it accuracy dominates, then this would be sufficient.
The diagonal line between them contains all and only the credence functions on these two propositions that are probability functions and thus satisfy Probabilism.
The credence functions that lie between the two arcs are all and only the credence functions that accuracy dominate \(c^*\).
And suppose that none of the credence functions that accuracy dominate your credence function have that feature.
The credence functions on the dashed line are all and only the credence functions that match your evidence that the chance of Heads is 0.7.
However, it turns out that all of the credence functions that accuracy dominate your credence function (when accuracy is measured by the Brier score) fail to match this evidence: that is, they assign credence other than 0.7 to Heads.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.
Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com