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Overall, the comparison of heat/heat wave effects between observations and forecast demonstrated the importance of choice of weather forecast product in designing a HHWS.
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The procedure was introduced to build ensemble precipitation forecasts based on the statistical relationship between observations and forecasts.
It was recommended by participants that there should be "great clarity" (EU) between observations and forecasts in messages.
Open image in new window Fig. 4 Predicted errors between observation and forecast values at the Chiahsien Weir.
Four model evaluation statistics were calculated for the relationship between BlueSky PM2.5 and Monitor PM2.5: a) the Pearson's correlation coefficient (r); b) normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE); c) index of agreement (IOA, 0 1, where a value of 1 indicates a perfect match); and d) fractional bias (FB, difference between observation and forecast divided by the average of the two).
49 For the purposes of forecasting, visualisations of forecasts compared to observations and forecast accuracy measures, such as the mean absolute forecast error, provide more direct and intuitive model selection criteria.
This calibration is usually implemented by building multiple linear regression models that are based on historical weather observations and forecast outputs.
Over time, the correlation coefficients between observed and forecast ILI time series decreased, although they remained >0.85.
Although we have not reported the results here, the LETKF gives excellent agreement between the true and shadowed tumors when the same model is used for both observations and forecasts.
National Weather Service (//www.nws.noaa.gov/) provides current official weather warnings, observations, and forecasts.
a Shows the observations and forecasts of the four scenarios.
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