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The results are described of comparisons between actual values for patch occupancy for two species of Australian small mammals (Bush Rat Rattus fuscipes and Agile Antechinus Antechinus agilis) determined from field sampling and predictions of patch occupancy made using VORTEX, a generic simulation model for Population Viability Analysis (PVA).
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The actual and predicted values, together with the residuals (the difference between predicted and actual values), for both approaches are shown in Table 5.
Equations for P removal curves and cumulative P removed were not significantly different between predicted and actual values for any of the 23 scenarios examined.
Additionally, the differences between the predicted and actual values for the deviating traits are rather small, indicating that the differences in integration are subtle.
The low correlation between randomly imputed and actual values, for distance from hospital and Townsend score, could result in attenuated regression coefficients and hence underadjustment for the confounding effect of these variables.
For the naïve time series models, we computed empirical errors for each calendar year as the difference between the naïve prediction and the actual value for that year.
Across all 12 scenarios, risk estimates were accurate (a response between 0.67 and 1.5 times the actual value) for only 24% of the responses.
The difference between the output value of network and actual value for a samplei is given by Error m = 1 2 ∑ m = 1 M A c i − M i 2, Open image in new window (4).
Actual value for the considered case.
The idealised tow path was found to provide some correlation between predicted and actual values particularly for integrated type structures.
To keep the relationship between the model and the actual values accessible for the reader, it is common practice to provide both simulated and actual values.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com