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It appears that savvy investors can indeed make sustained profits from the carry trade.The authors stress that their sophisticated approach was scarcely better than the simple one at predicting the direction of exchange rates.
Your first question should be: "Why would that be better than the simple strategy I'm already following?" The keep-it-simple approach can help you sleep at night, free of the second-guessing and doubt that plague aggressive traders seduced by the latest fads.
In ordinary times, it's very, very hard for structural models to beat a random walk – that is, models based on an attempt to track the forces moving the exchange rate, such as changes in prices and changes in monetary policy, are barely if at all better than the simple guess that tomorrow's exchange rate will be the same as today's.
Variable exponent taper equations were generally better than the simple polynomial taper equations.
They found that the complex predictors were at best only negligibly better than the simple Markov predictor.
For western hemlock, all the variable-exponent models performed better than the simple polynomial taper function for dataset I.
Similar(16)
Let's hope, though, that the duo reveal why Plan B is so much better than the simpler Plan A. It may be, but an explanation is required.
A possible explanation why the distributed model did not perform better than the simpler model structures is the use of limited available spatial information.
The conditions for each configuration to be strictly better than the simpler ones are obtained by presenting the analytical solutions of each configuration based on those of the simpler ones.
Similar to the results from the Linear model, we found that this more complex model is no better than the simpler Binary model.
For the comparison of the two-epoch with the constant size model, and the three-epoch with the two-epoch model, twice the difference in log likelihood is expected to be χ2-distributed with two degrees of freedom, under the null hypothesis that the model with more parameters does not significantly describe the data better than the simpler model.
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better than the straightforward
better than the plain
greater than the simple
better than the sole
better than the simplicity
better than the straight
better than the mere
better than the ordinary
better than the simpler
better than the modest
better than the Real
better than the penal
better than the classic
better than the old
better than the other
better than the second
better than the original
better than the iPod
better than the last
better than the naive
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com