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Figure 3 shows the model predictions for cumulative all-cause mortality and relapse, compared to data from the UKCCR Anal Cancer Trial (ACT 1), for the best fitting set of parameters which could be achieved through the calibration process.
The best fitting set of values, determined by comparing the model output to longitudinal data on overall mortality and loco-regional relapse [ 29] using least squares from each batch of simulations were then used to determine the ranges from which values were selected in the next round.
However, we note that the estimates obtained appear reasonably robust across the best fitting set of models, which includes two models allowing for the slight under-detection of infection allowed for in the field survey design and for the imperfect diagnostic test sensitivity.
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Early HPV models mainly aimed at visually assessing how well model outputs fitted empirical data (Taira et al, 2004), whereas more recent models rely to a greater extent on the systematic exploration of parameters and formal selection of best fitting sets of values (Hoare et al, 2008).
In essence, it is impractical to try all combinations of powers for finding the best-fitting set of FP functions for all of the candidate continuous variables, and an iterative algorithm is needed.
For this exercise we assumed that approximately 1 in 4 women with minor toxicity would discontinue treatment.[42] We compared the differences between estimates of life expectancy derived from the model calibrated to the 24-month short-term data (using the mean of the 50 best-fitting sets) to those generated using the original model parameters prior to calibration.
Red dotted line represents model output for the best-fitting set; grey lines represent model output for the next nine best-fitting sets.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.07116.008 Using our best fitting parameter sets (set 9 and 13 from Table 1) we simulated the effects of a 100% permanently effective varicella vaccine given to all children aged 1 year (100% coverage).
The calibrated values of the four parameters in the best-fitting parameter set, and the mean and range of values for the 10 best-fitting sets, are presented in the Supplementary information.
The best parameter sets were defined by those parameter sets that had at least one run with a deviance within the 5% range of the deviance of the best fitting parameter set.
The best fitting parameter set was then applied to the failure problem of the composite hip prosthesis implanted in an anatomically modeled femur to predict in vivo performance.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com