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The findings highlight coherence amongst experts when interpreting the current behaviour of the volcano, but reveal considerable ambiguity when relating this to longer patterns of volcanism at dome-building volcanoes, as a class.
A significant aspect of the success of the network must be attributed to the behaviour of the volcano itself.
The time lapse between the tectonic earthquake and the eventual variation in the behaviour of the volcano causing concern, can be short (hours to days) or long (weeks to months, to even several years, Marzocchi [2002]; Eggert and Walter [2009]).
What I mean is that the use of VALS by scientists, together with the way that scientists define them, communicates confidence in a deterministic capability to recognise and anticipate the behaviour of the volcano, rather than a full appreciation of the uncertain nature of volcanic processes and forecasts.
Interviewer: "Do you have more confidence in the scientists, because the vigías are in the communities?" Resident of Baños: "More confidence in the vigías because it is they who are living in the community with us, they know the behaviour of the volcano".
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He and several others have drawn attention to volcanologists observing the behaviour of Mount Vesuvius, the volcano near Naples whose eruption – if it comes – could necessitate the evacuation of nearby Naples.
The situation emerging from the above picture is that – although uncertainties are an element under increasing consideration when forecasting the behaviour of a volcano – the use of intuitive-based VALS communicates undue confidence in the capability to discern the relevance of on-going volcanic processes and anticipate the future outcomes.
Ground deformation monitoring is considered one of the most effective tools for investigating the behaviour of active volcanoes.
Two magmatic episodes, September 1944 to July 1946 and June 1995 to November 1997, make up about 65% of the observations and Scott (2013) suggests removing these for the assessment of the volcano's background behaviour.
If this were the case, then an analysis of global data may in actuality be an analysis of the behaviour of a few volcanoes and hence could be unrepresentative.
Wittily and rather mischievously, Herzog suggests the volcano phenomenon also explains the behaviour of the North Koreans.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com