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The conclusion has to be that the pass rate for Part 2 was increasing before statistical equating was introduced, and it continued to do so afterwards.
A formal test can show that, there being no difference in DIF for items used before statistical equating was introduced and after (Part 1: t(5224) = .054, p = .957; Part 2: t(6383) = 0.001, p = .999).999
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Particularly clear in Figures 4 and 5 is that there is no obvious change in the pattern of DIF before and after statistical equating was introduced.
The changes can only be properly understood given a background of the methods used before and after statistical equating was introduced, and we will describe them first as a part of the introduction.
Statistical equating was introduced for the MRCP UK) written examinations during 2008 and 2010.
It would have been easy in the diets after statistical equating was introduced to Part 1 to have jumped to the conclusion that equating was artefactually, in some way unknown, resulting in the apparent pass rate increase.
The red box indicates the diets for which statistical equating was used, and the green vertical arrows indicate the diet used as the base form, and the diet for which re-equating occurred.
For the exam boards, the biggest surprise in introducing statistical equating was the apparent sudden increase in the pass rate amongst non-UK candidates.
It seems that non-UK candidates have begun to behave differently, but that was not from 2008/3 onwards, when statistical equating was introduced, but earlier than that.
Statistical equating was successfully introduced into the MRCP UK) Part 1 and Part 2 written examinations, resulting in higher predictive validity than the previous Angoff/Hofstee standard setting.
Soon after statistical equating was introduced there was a suggestion that although the pass rate seemed to have remained constant in UK graduates (the reference group), the pass rate in non-UK graduates had increased, a feature noticed firstly in the Part 1 examination and then also noticed in the Part 2 examination when statistical equating was introduced.
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