Exact(7)
But did something go wrong in 2012, when Obama beat the polls' expectations?
Silver's final forecast in Florida clearly beat the polls of polls, which had Romney ahead.
Mr. Obama beat the polls in almost every state in the Northeast, and particularly in New Jersey.
States where Mr. Obama beat the polls (Oregon, for example) tended to border others where he also did so.
First, there are some pretty clear regional patterns in which each candidate beat his forecast (and, by extension, beat the polls).
It could just be a coincidence — Mr. Obama also beat the polls on the West Coast, which has some cultural similarities to the Northeast but which was not affected by the storm.
Similar(53)
Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio would be tougher for her to beat, the poll showed.
Instead, if a candidate beats the polls in one state, he is very likely to also do so in other states that are demographically or geographically similar.
He also nailed the popular vote, again beating the polls of polls, and he correctly identified the last-minute swing to Obama.
The profit of €2.5 billion, or $3.2 billion, was up 7.6 percent from the previous year, and beat the Reuters poll average forecast of €2.3 billion.
Prediction markets repeatedly beat the experts and polls in elections.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com