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Over the next week or so, then, I would expect him to earn a polling bounce at the high end of the historical average from debates: Per my colleague Nate Silver, that would be about three points, which would leave the race more or less dead even.
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(For wide receivers, the mean is about ten points lower).
That is about six points of market share, and every point is about $1 billion in variable profit.
According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Cassidy's advantage on Monday afternoon was about five points.
And compared with Obama, her margin even among the much-vaunted Latina vote was about eight points lower.
He's about eight points closer to Romney than Santorum in the Real Clear Politics average of polls, which arguably makes him a more plausible choice for the tactically-minded anti-Romney voter than the former Pennsylvania senator.
(According to Gallup, Reagan's average approval rating during his second term was 55.3 per cent. That's about ten points higher than what Obama has averaged so far in his second term).
That's about five points behind the growthy, pricey S&P 500.
Just to remind you again: to remain the largest party in a hung parliament, the Conservatives need to be about four points ahead of Labour in vote share.
Polling is scant, but Davids looks to be about six points ahead.
For Obama to now be about six points up is a pretty major development, given that set of dynamics.
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