Alho (1998) compared prediction intervals for the total fertility rate (TFR) in Finland obtained by means of an ARIMA (1,1,0) model with those that result from the errors of so-called naïve forecasts (i.e. forecasts that assume the current TFR level is a reasonable forecast of the future TFR).
About 200-300 export sales would be a reasonable baseline forecast for the winning T-X plane, depending upon who wins, who else is still competing, and of course prices offered.
Kayak is making "a reasonable forecast about the direction of the price, whether they are going up or when they might fall," Chief Scientist Giorgos Zacharia tells HuffPost Travel.
Analysts are forecasting somewhere around 10% growth in sales and profit and that seems to me to be a reasonable place".
–Have an understanding of interest rates and be able to make a reasonable forecast of future interest rates when deciding on the risks versus the rewards of an adjustable-rate mortgage that offers initial low interest rates versus a fixed-rate mortgage.
Statistical analysis is essential for choosing a reasonable forecast strategy.
One measure of the utility of a forecast is its shadowing time, informally given by the period of time for which the forecast is a reasonable description of reality.
And they went on, "While we believe this month's baseline forecast is a reasonable and defensible projection based on our best thinking about all these risk factors, it is almost certain to change in ways that are not now predictable".
Mr Mishkin's forecast was a reasonable estimate of what would have followed if the housing decline had continued to be the only or the main factor involved in the economic downturn.
Mr Mishkin's forecast was a reasonable estimate of what would have followed if the housing decline had continued to be the only or the main factor involved in the economic downturn.Emphasis mine.
