As results progress, and more turnout information emerges, the target will become a calculated one, based on turnout, and the electorates of the remaining undeclared councils.
But that doesn't rule out the possibility of a surprise, especially given the projected differences in outcome based on turnout.
Furthermore, we can weight the states based on their turnout in 2008: a deviation in the vote in Rhode Island or Wyoming will matter much less than one in California, Texas or Florida in terms of the national popular vote.
But based on voter turnout in years past, not all 80percentt are going to vote in November, so some polls use a series of questions to determine who is most likely to vote.
Each precinct is apportioned a number of delegates based on Democratic turnout in the past two elections.
The percentage broadcast on the networks and reported in the newspapers is the candidate's share of the 2,500 delegates the party apportions across Iowa's 99 counties, based on Democratic voter turnout in each of the 1,784 precincts in the two most recent general elections.
Dr. Lichtman said he projected, based on past turnout and racial voting preferences in the 27th District, that future black candidates there would win at least 54percentt of the vote.
Trump fares slightly better in a high turnout scenario - Pollsters Patrick Ruffini and Kristen Soltis Anderson in a memo provided to HuffPollster before the election, which saw a record turnout of more than 730,000 voters: "Our goal was to show the various ways that turnout scores from the voter file could be used to construct different scenarios based on expected turnout.
How well the no vote does will be based on this turnout".
Redistribution is based on past turnout, new registrations, any recent purges under the National Voter Registration Act, and the number of ballot issues in the district.
