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As results progress, and more turnout information emerges, the target will become a calculated one, based on turnout, and the electorates of the remaining undeclared councils.
Unless the result is very close, it is likely that BBC analysts will be able to forecast one side to have won earlier, based on turnout and voting patterns.
financial acrobat (@finansakrobat) It's pretty clear now that Berlusconi is going to have a bad election, based on turnout in his base regions.
But that doesn't rule out the possibility of a surprise, especially given the projected differences in outcome based on turnout.
Based on turnout and entrance polling, more than 71,000 out of the 358,000 Iowa voters were independents--or about 20percentt.
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Trump fares slightly better in a high turnout scenario - Pollsters Patrick Ruffini and Kristen Soltis Anderson in a memo provided to HuffPollster before the election, which saw a record turnout of more than 730,000 voters: "Our goal was to show the various ways that turnout scores from the voter file could be used to construct different scenarios based on expected turnout.
Each precinct is apportioned a number of delegates based on Democratic turnout in the past two elections.
How well the no vote does will be based on this turnout".
First, it weights each state not just based on the turnout there, but also on the quality and quantity of polling.
Based on current turnout predictions, the Democrats may end up spending $140 to $150 on advertisements per caucusgoer, and the Republicans $95 to $105.
Furthermore, we can weight the states based on their turnout in 2008: a deviation in the vote in Rhode Island or Wyoming will matter much less than one in California, Texas or Florida in terms of the national popular vote.
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