Based on that revised forecast, Mr. Nakanomyo at Barclays further reduced his estimate of operating profit for the year, to 63 billion yen.
"Using these hypothetical 2003 views, we compare the current valuation multiples based on that rough forecast and compare it to the historic and trough valuation multiples to establish a price range objective," the analysts wrote.
Based on the forecast, he said, "that's not looking terribly promising".
Based on this forecast, Lear trades at just 12 times expected 2001 profits.
Based on forecasts that continued to indicate that Amara would track directly over Rodrigues, the Mauritius Meteorological Services issued a "Class 3 warning" in the morning hours of December 20, describing Amara as a "real threat for Rodrigues".
The prospects for big royalties, assuming that the university can defend its patent, is based on forecasts that sales of Cox-2 inhibitors will rise to several billion dollars a year.
George Osborne's £27bn Budget giveaway two months ago was based on forecasts that may prove unreliable, the head of the independent government body that produced them has admitted.
The reliability and skill of a given forecasting model have to be evaluated objectively according to how well a forecast based on that model agrees with data collected after the forecast is made (prospective testing) and also by checks against previously accumulated data (retrospective testing) (International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection, 2009).
So taking major decisions now about spending, which could have very long term and serious implications for the future of the economy, based on forecasts that may well prove wrong is a risky business.
The prospectus said Deutsche Bank made the loan based on forecasts that by 2012 the cash flow would have soared to $18 million a year, as market rents in New York rose rapidly while many tenants in rent-stabilized and rent-controlled apartments moved out.
