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The probabilities of earthquake occurrence are usually estimated based on specific seismicity models.
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Slab thickness is assumed to be 70 km based on seismicity and seismic tomography (e.g., Nakajima and Hasegawa 2006).
Three specific primers based on novel specific targets were screened.
In western Europe, the knowledge of long-term seismicity is based on reliable historical seismicity and covers a time period of less than 700 years.
Thus, the availability of forecast models based on background seismicity rate may be reduced.
The simulation of future earthquake events based on regional seismicity and a ground motion model is necessary because of the absence of data on strong ground motions.
It is necessary to identify these types of slip statistically based on space time seismicity patterns to allow empirical evaluation of the probability gain of large earthquakes.
Together with other subprograms associated with predictive simulation analysis of crustal dynamics, the project on "Earthquake Forecast System based on the Seismicity of Japan" has begun research on this task.
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