Using data from one state, Hollenbeck (2009) compared impact estimates based on exit date with those using a sample of entry dates.
The first projected results, based on exit polls, will come through after 11pm GMT.
And there are indications, based on exit polls, where the question is often asked by proxy, that it is.
If those voters are assigned to Mr. Obama or John Edwards based on exit poll results, his lead grows to about 410,000.
Based on exit polls from Election Day, we have a decent idea of how these scenarios would play out.
In Sunday's voting, the pro-democracy parties appeared to retain the largest block of directly elected seats in the Legislature, based on exit polls.
Based on exit polls and most of the votes counted, Mr. Fujimori had more than 50percentt, while Mr. Toledo had about 16percentt.
Based on exit polls, the only state the networks were able to call immediately was Georgia, where the local hero Newt Gingrich had won big.
Shortly before 11 p.m., the state electoral commission said Mr. Salazar had apparently won with 57percentto43percentcent for Sami David of the PRI, based on exit polls.
The argument is that Ohio did go for Kerry, based on exit polls, then mysteriously went for Bush in the final result.
