Based on current budget assumptions, California faces an $8 billion shortfall next year -- and even that figure seems ludicrously optimistic.
In announcing the plan, Mr. McGreevey said that based on current budget projections, the cost of the changes -- $125 million in the 2004 fiscal year and $180 million in 2005 -- could be paid out of the state's general fund.
It suggests that based on current budget plans, spending on health per head of population in Wales is likely to be the lowest of any of the UK countries by 2014-15.
In its first year, the plan would cost the state $7.7 million, based on current budgets, and eventually rise to more than $75 million.
Second, this chart is based on current US budget plans: if Mitt Romney moves into the White House next January, or even if Barack Obama is re-elected and has to strike a bargain with intransigent Republicans, then Washington is also likely to make stringent cuts.
But he also notes that his target relates to what the budget would be based on current policy, not today's budget adjusted for inflation.Mr O'Hanlon admits there would be risks in his plan.
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The real battle is less about budget trends based on current law than on the impact of additional tax cuts that President Bush has advocated in recent weeks.
According to the IFS, the poor state of the economy means that tax revenues are likely to come in £17bn less than forecast this year, based on current trends, while the size of the budget deficit is set to be £10bn bigger than it was last year, £13bn larger than forecast.
Based on current levels of spending and deficit, and assuming budget priorities remain static, with oil market conditions to stay unchanged, and regional tensions do not escalate, their reserves give them a fiscal buffer of five years at best.
Based on current spending and funding forecasts, London Fire Brigade expects a budget shortfall of £35m for 2014-15.
