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Due to lack of data, the authors have assumed a 35% per cycle probability of reaching the subacute health state and varied the base case probability in a sensitivity analysis from 0%to100%0%to100%
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To estimate the number of HIV-infected children in the whole of the Iganga and Mayuge districts, we inferred the base case probabilities in Table 1 to the districts population of about 1,140,000 individuals in 2008 (16).
Thus R represents the base case probability of acquiring HIV (in the absence of the intervention) during the D months following the intervention.
To calculate the base case probability of a CLABSI in the programme arm of the decision tree, we multiplied the probability of CLABSI by the incidence rate ratio (0.19) from the trial.
The Turnin 2001 RCT was used to estimate the base case probability of drop out, although this value was altered in a sensitivity analysis.
Table 3 contains all base case probabilities and their respective ranges used in the sensitivity analyses.
Table 2 shows the base case probabilities with the associated 95% confidence intervals (CI).
Based on data from several sources, we assumed 0.019 as the base case annual probability of acquiring HIV in the absence of the intervention.
In the base case, the probability that surgery is cost effective at a cost effectiveness threshold of £20 000 is 0.94.
In the base case analysis, this probability was set at 35% per cycle, while the sensitivity analyses used a probability of 0% and 100%.
Thus, the probability that conduct disorder persists beyond age 16 reduces to 54% in the base case scenario, 17% in the best case scenario and to 57% in the worst case scenario.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com