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Besides a base case for projection through 2012, four additional scenarios were defined to address the uncertainty surrounding critical assumptions (for details, see above and Table 4).
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Prove a base case for the problem.
We predict that, based on our base-case projection results, Singapore's growth over the next decade will be at 2.35percentnt for labor productivity and 3.10percentnt for GDP relative to the respective rates of 2.52perr cent and 5.45 percentt, for the period of 1998-2008.
But misstating the base case and then having to make unrealistic projections are unlikely to cancel each other out; they merely cloud the analysis.
For prognostic assessments, the comparison is between a base case, typically represented by the status quo or, better, some projection of it under a business-as-usual scenario, and one or more alternative (e.g. policy) scenarios.
"...Compared with previous projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place.
Base case.
BP's base case "assumes that government policies, technology and social preferences continue to evolve in a manner and speed seen over the recent past". But the BP projections allow that U.S. tight oil could grow faster or for longer than projected in the base case scenario, depending on the availability of finance and resources.
BP made its projections in its recently released 2018 Energy Outlook, predicting that the U.S. will become "by far the largest producer of liquid fuels". BP's base case scenario assumes much the same conditions as the EIA's base case.
Our base-case projections show SWFs with $4.3 trillion in assets by 2013.
Finally, the model was simulated, and base-case and alternative scenario projections were made.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com