3. The Abramowitz model says Democrats need something like a 13pt margin on the national House ballot Alan Abramowitz's national House ballot to seats model seems to have unusual sway among some.
It would be within the margin of error of the model for Democrats to take back the House with a 2pt September lead on the national House ballot.
Abramowitz isn't saying that a 13pt Democratic margin in the national House ballot on election day is what Democrats need to take over the House.
So, there's no reason to think the final national House ballot will overstate the Democrats' standing in 2014.
Right now, Democrats are ahead on the national House ballot by about four points among likely 2014 voters.
In 2008, 2010, and 2012, the Real Clear Politics average of the national House ballot underestimated the actual Democratic standing in the national House vote.
The party won the coveted first spot on the NSW upper house ballot paper, giving it a boost from so-called donkey votes.
What he is saying is that a 13pt lead in September is likely to shrink because of the natural movement away from the White House party on the national House ballot during the course of the election year.
President Obama's low approval rating, combined with the usual midterm loss and normal movement away (pdf) from the White House party on the national House ballot, should keep Republicans in control.
Voters in Japan are casting ballots in upper house elections expected to deliver a win for PM Shinzo Abe.
