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Wall Street has a notoriously bad forecasting record.
Wall Street has a notoriously bad forecasting record.
The problem isn't bad forecasting: China's headline inflation measure is flawed.
In her papers, she inveighs against probabilism and inductivism, qualities that seem to be associated with better (or at least "less bad") forecasting.
With a sense of fun, Silver explores good and bad forecasting in daily life, leisure activity, and science.
I am simply saying that bad forecasting and attributions of infallibility to flawed forecasts harms political debate.
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It provides the excellent service of warning people that bad forecasts are common.
Overlooked in Noam Scheiber's review (Nov. 4) is that bad forecasts are avoidable.
Swindonclimate wonders whether the bad forecast was designed to put off protesters.
That doesn't mean that the polls will brush aside bad forecasts in this referendum.
And if that proves to be a bad forecast, the prices should rally.
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