We averaged these predicted mortality scores for acute myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, and pneumonia to create an indirect composite predicted mortality score for each hospital.
These data were multiplied by the estimated populations for 2014, 2017, and 2020 according to 5-year age groups to obtain the predicted mortality rate, average number of outpatient visits, average number of hospitalizations, and average length of stay for each year.
The average absolute difference between observed and predicted mortality was 2.8 per 100,000 (18% of the average excess mortality) and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was 0.89 (P = 0.05).
The average APACHE II score was 20.7 with predicted mortality of 39.9% and SMR 0.83 (95% CI = 0.63 to 1.06, P = 0.15) compared with an average APACHE IV score of 73.1 with predicted mortality of 32.2% and SMR of 0.99 (95% CI = 0.78 to 1.32, P = 0.82).
These patients have a higher than normal APACHE-II score and predicted mortality compared with unit averages.
Demographic data, number of observed deaths, predicted mortality rate (PMR), standardized mortality ratio (SMR), average length of stay (ALOS), predicted length of stay, and number of discharge against medical advice (DAMA) were documented for each group.
The average SAPS 3 during readmission on the ICU was 52 with a predicted mortality of 34%.
To classify winters as having high or low mortality, we regressed yearly average winter mortality against time (i.e., calendar year) to determine predicted mortality after accounting for secular trends according to city and age (all or ≥ 65) for all nonaccidental deaths.
