The phrase "average forecasting error" is correct and usable in written English.
It can be used in contexts related to statistics, data analysis, or any field that involves predicting outcomes and measuring the accuracy of those predictions.
Example: "The average forecasting error for our sales predictions this quarter was lower than expected, indicating improved accuracy in our models."
Alternatives: "mean prediction error" or "typical forecasting mistake".
For reference, that £0.1bn difference compares with an average forecasting error, for borrowing numbers one year out, of £12-15bn.
It can be observed from comparative study that use of OWA considerably reduces mean square error (MSE) and average forecasting error rate (AFER).
More importantly, the forecasting results for substation load clusters are more stable: the average forecasting error is reduced to 18.54%, with a random error 7.76%.
The modelling error of the direct method is 2.18% and the average forecasting error is 10.02%, so the random error is 7.84%.
As shown in Table 4, the average forecasting error variance is smaller for the DSA approach, reflecting less uncertainty in the forecasts.
The comparison reveals that the average forecasting error for MAE and MSE in the train and test datasets is lower in the ARIMA-MLP and MLP-ARIMA hybrid models constructed using the series combination technique than those in the parallel hybrid models.
For the COV-OBS.x1 observations (green circled line) and observation errors (green line), the ensemble average forecast (red stars dotted line, superimposed to the spectrum of the observations), the ensemble average forecast errors (dark red), the ensemble average analysis errors (cyan).
The average modelling and forecasting error in Fig. 2a are 20.32 and 26.46% respectively, so the average random error is 6.13%.
However, the NHC stated that there was a 20% chance of the storm becoming a hurricane within 24 hours based on climatological factors and the average forecast intensity errors.
Landfall forecasts were very accurate; from three days prior, the average track forecast error for its landfall was only 36 miles (58 km), and for 48 hours in advance the average track error was 18 miles (29 km).
The average modelling error is 7.64%, forecasting error 14.96%, and random error 7.32%.
