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The average error in hurricane-track prediction has been slashed by two-thirds since the early 1970s.
Among the nine in that category, the average error in calling the election result was 2.1 percentage points.
Among the nine polling firms that conducted their polls wholly or partially online, the average error in calling the election result was 2.1 percentage points.
In contrast, the estimate of the average error in the firm's polls measures how far off the firm's polls were in either direction, on average.
A quarter-century ago, for instance, the average error in a hurricane forecast, made three days in advance of landfall, was about 350 miles.
The estimate of the average error in the firm's polls measures how far off the polls were in either direction, on average.
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The large number of mating teeth elastically average errors in the teeth.
The average errors in epicenters and focal depths were 0.70 and 0.75 km, respectively.
The average errors in epicenter locations and depths were 1.08 and 1.68 km, respectively.
The results are shown, through the running average errors, in Figure 15.
Average errors in the surrogate model were low in all cases, with maximum non-conservative errors less than 1%.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com