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Finally, the overall effectiveness of the vaccination program, VEOverall, compares the average attack rate in the intervention community with the overall attack rate in the nonintervention population (21).
The average attack rate for VMCCI over Seasons 1 and 2 was low at 23/3714 (0.6%) in the TIV group, and 45/3768 (1.2%) in the placebo group (Table 2).
For instance, in order to evaluate the relative efficacy of targeted vaccination of different groups of persons, we do not need to know the risk of infection of each individual — it is sufficient to estimate the average attack rate in each group.
For the current analysis we assumed that the number of contacts of cases was Poisson distributed with a mean of 2 persons per day, and that 33percentnt of the simulation population were susceptible to infection, which is equivalent to the average attack rate reported by Longini et al [ 25].
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Average attack rates accumulate over only those simulations that resulted in epidemics (>100 infected).
Of those 72 cases, 21 (29%) occurred among trainees in the 554th Battalion (figure 1); 11 cases occurred in Alpha Company (average weekly attack rate 1.4%), and 10 cases occurred in Hotel Company (average weekly attack rate 1.2%).
In the absence of vaccination, the average infection attack rate across the entire Canadian population was 35.1% (range 33.2 36.8%).
Seventy-two cases of radiologically-confirmed pneumonia were identified among all trainees (N = approximately 9,400; approximate average weekly attack rate 0.3%) at FLW training camp during February 1-February 21.
We defined the fraction of cases averted for a given coverage level to be one minus the ratio of the average illness attack rate for that level of vaccine coverage to the attack rate with no vaccination.
This rate of immune waning was chosen to produce an average annual attack rate of ∼5 10%, consistent with what was observed in the simulations with antigenic and non-antigenic mutations.
Among Alpha and Hotel Company trainees, the average weekly attack rates of radiologically-confirmed pneumonia were 1.4%and1.2%2% (most other companies at FLW: 0-0.4%).
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