Some quantitative tools based on databases may be more suitable for assessing scenarios within a shorter time horizon, whereas qualitative assessment methods might better fit the purpose of long-term transformative scenarios.
Arushanyan et al. [31] highlight the discrepancy between what researchers assessing scenarios and futures studies researchers see as the purpose of the scenario assessment.
This newspaper has similar skeletons in its cupboard.It is exactly because assessing scenarios is so hard, says Dr Edenhofer, that the IPCC authors instead chose to simply expand on the details of four particularly striking ones.
S-LCA has been used for assessing scenarios in a few case studies.
It was applied for assessing scenarios of future Swedish ICT societies in 2060 [31], against both environmental and social aspects.
By assessing scenarios (e.g., a region decides to maximize their reduction of GHG or decides to increase the bioenergy output), areas of risk and/or opportunities for agricultural profitability or environmental goals can be visualized (cf. Figure7).
Additional methods listed that could potentially be useful for assessing scenarios are: Geographical information system (GIS) Overlay/constraint maps Trend analyses, extrapolation Vulnerability analyses Risk assessments, risk analyses Carrying capacity, Ecological footprint Planetary boundaries.
However, only a few computational tools are presently available for assessing scenarios, predicting epidemic evolutions, and managing health emergencies that can benefit a broad audience of users including policy makers and health institutions.
How to measure and assess scenario quality still is a contested question.
