Exact(42)
Last time around, estimates before the census exaggerated population growth, and demographers spent the first days after the real figures were released playing "Where's Wally?".
Data processing was undertaken using Epi-info [ 10], with estimation undertaken in WinBUGS [ 11] to allow description of uncertainty around estimates.
Curiously, and highlighting the clear fudge in the 2013 Myefo, the IGR noted, "there is a wide range of uncertainty around estimates for the Nairu, of the order of ½ to 1 percentage point" meaning that the 6% assumption in "previous policy" was at the very extreme of any decent sensitivity analysis.
He said: "I don't think we as a government should start bandying around estimates, estimates which at the moment aren't very precise".
Apart from the accuracy and precision criteria used for the comparison study, the posterior distributions for the time and the magnitude of a change enable us to construct probabilistic intervals around estimates and probabilistic inferences about the location of change point as discussed in section 'Step change model' for the step change scenario.
Second, our sample size is relatively small, particularly for DZ twins, and so confidence intervals around estimates were large, and so only large effects would be detected.
Similar(18)
Scientific interest centers around estimating the underlying spatial associations and effects at multiple resolutions.
Applying the Bayesian framework enables us to construct probability-based intervals around estimated parameters.
One concern with the HP filter centers around estimating the end of sample trend.
Finally, confidence intervals around estimated values of divergence times are quite large (see Table 1).
The credible interval shows the degree of uncertainty around estimated treatment effects.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
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