Cereal prices are always forecast to increase during the lean season as household stocks diminish, peaking in August, until the beginning of the next Meher harvest in October.
Of course, forecasts are always wrong; but it is worth noting that the National Institute of Economic and Social Research's forecast, published very shortly after the last IMF report, said, "the recovery will continue but it will be sluggish", due to the impact of tightened fiscal policy and depressed consumer demand.
For example, if the forecasts are always far too high (but by about the same amount), or if the forecasts are always far too strong, both for warm and for cold episodes (but by about the same factor), the correlation can still be very high but the mean absolute error may be terrible (very high).
Of course, forecasts are always revised down as the earnings season approaches, allowing companies to "beat" the forecasts on the day.Nevertheless, we have a combination of cyclically-high profits, a downward trend in revisions and above-average valuations.
Anyone griping abut the intensity forecast for Irene simply has no case, in that these forecasts are always portrayed as conditional and history shows just how much small shifts in conditions in the last few dozen miles offshore can make or break a tropical cyclone.
However, the situation remains fluid and these forecasts are always liable to change".
American intelligence officials estimate that it might field an intercontinental missile by 2015, but such forecasts are always rough approximations.
These kinds of hyper-fast growth forecasts are always to be taken with a grain of salt, and a sense of humor.
While their forecasts are always closely watched, they have taken on added meaning as the advertising industry stumbles through a third consecutive year of substandard results.
