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The more money that mining firms spend buying one another, rather than exploring for and developing new mines, the likelier that is.
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It takes years to find and develop new mines and oil reservoirs and to build the infrastructure (rigs, pipelines, railways, ports) to bring the commodities to market.
Therefore, even if a massive effort were now launched to find and develop new mines, there will still be an eight-year gap after 2013.
With the price of gold hovering around $271.90 an ounce, he said, "it's cheaper to buy companies than to explore and develop new mines".
Developing new mines can take years and years.
Developing new mines is also slow.
India has few oil and gas reserves, and while it has the fifth-largest coal reserves, it has been importing coal because of delays in developing new mines.
An inability to transport iron ore from remote locations in Australia to ports has long been a deterrent to developing new mines.
During the past two years alone, a third of the American coal industry has sold out, often at well below the cost of developing new mines.
The company has broadened its geographic reach by developing new mining centers.
Many of those countries, responding to the rising demand for rare earths and alarmed by the recent embargo, are now scrambling to develop new mines or renovate ones long considered not to be worth the effort.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com