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The government has strong-armed them in the past to buy Argentina's bonds; an outright default would now bankrupt many.
"If the government bailed out a bank, don't you think they'd bail out a state?" But there is another more pressing issue than an outright default: what happens if an investor wants to sell the bonds before the maturity date?
"Do we have to have another 9/11?" Though the stakes are less acute than they were this summer, when Americans feared an outright default, some analysts said they worried that failure would damp holiday spending.
The Greek tragedy is so long-running that one would presume it would take an outright default (and exit from the euro zone) to really panic traders, although the potential risks of an exit financial contagion in particular—have reduced a bit.Another possibility (cited here) is that bond yields offer too little protection against inflation.
With international markets and banks watching Argentina closely for any sign of further deterioration in the government's already weak finances, an outright default on the World Bank loan due this week would be disastrous, and would cut the country off from its last source of credit.
While no one is expecting an outright default as long as global interest rates remain low — largely due to aggressive government bond purchases by central banks — concerns have been building for months that once these easing measures end, interest rates will spike and investors will become less willing to trust the word of heavily indebted governments.
Similar(48)
Perhaps of greatest concern are delays in immunisations scheduled at birth due to their potential for snowballing into subsequent immunisations with an added risk of outright default [ 6, 10- 12].
Now restructuring — a polite alternative to outright "default" — is not only thinkable, but even likely.
One trader at a primary dealer said: "outright default would be Armageddon.
This paper develops an early warning system for debt crises broadly defined as episodes of outright default or failure of a country to be current on external obligations.
Talk of the impact of a return to the drachma was predominant, split between those who believed the fallout from an outright Greek default could be contained and those who thought that the knock-on effect, particularly in Spain, would shift the euro crisis into an entirely new dimension.
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