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"To me, that's an equity risk," says Mr Gibbons.
A stock equals a company's future cash flow, discounted by some risk free interest rate plus an equity risk premium.
If you're bearish, you can create an equity risk premium foreseeing low returns.
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He says we now confront a meager 3% equity risk premium.
"The role of bonds in a portfolio has always been to be a ballast or a diversifier to equity risk," said Francis Kinniry, a principal in the Vanguard Investment Strategy Group.
Stocks compete with bonds by offering an ever-varying "equity risk premium".
That, says Capital Economics, is perfectly reasonable.the price of the stock market will rise if the Treasury yield falls, provided that the latter's decline is not more than offset by some combination of a rise in the equity risk premium or a drop in the expected growth rate of nominal EPS (earnings per share)The logic is impeccable.
"Most companies take a considerable amount of equity risk," he said.
I suspect some of the decline reflects a rise in the equity risk premium as investors take on board the realisation that policy is no longer endogenous.This has actually been going on for some time.
The appropriate choice of hedging strategy for a particular investor depends largely on its existing portfolio; if, for example, it is heavily invested in equities, it might seek a hedging strategy to offset equity risk.
Real bond yields are not especially low by historic standards.Perhaps there has been a sharp fall in the "equity risk premium"—the extra returns that investors require, on average, as a reward for bearing the extra risk involved in buying shares rather than, say, Treasury bonds.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com