The shift is from actual inflation - the movement of prices as measured by statisticians - to "expected inflation", which is akin to a forecast estimated by economists.
This is a face full of weather — or, maybe, more accurately, it's akin to a weather report, a forecast of the personality you're going to see next.
Now, Washington budget wonks will tell you that these forecasts (known as outyear projections) are driven by notoriously unreliable economic assumptions, rarely come to pass, and are revised every year, making them akin to those frustrating 10-day weather forecasts.
Recently, researchers have welcomed Lautenbacher's proposal for setting up a climate service, akin to the National Weather Service, that would provide forecasts and climate data for local officials and businesses.
Meanwhile, there's little evidence that earthquake forecasting could become anything akin to your weekly weather report.
A daydream: If Saturday's expected low of 66 degrees fell to 56, New Yorkers, armed with suddenly superfluous iced coffees and sunscreen, would enjoy weather akin to that in Reykjavik, Iceland, where the high was forecast at 59 for Saturday (Anchorage is a relative steam-room with an expected low of 55).
The difference in predictability is akin to that between short-term and long-term weather forecasts, says Huisman. "The 'balance of nature' doesn't exist," he concludes.
My mentor, Clay Christensen, loves to say that forecasting based on the data alone is akin to steering a ship by staring only at the wake.
With eagerness akin to love,.
