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An enhanced PM2.5 air quality forecast model based on nonlinear regression (NLR) and back-trajectory concentrations has been developed for use in the Louisville, Kentucky metropolitan area.
The enhanced PM2.5 model consists of a basic NLR model, developed for use with an automated air quality forecast system, and an additional parameter based on upwind PM2.5 concentration, called PM24.
The PM2.5 air quality forecast model is designed for use in the warm season, from May through September, when PM2.5 air quality is more likely to be critical for human health.
With Cloud Crash HeHe took as point of departure the air quality forecast maps produced by the (NERC funded) National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) – that show, in hauntingly beautiful detail, levels of ozone, particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide as it sweeps across the UK.
The modeled O3 surface was provided by the CHRONOS (Canadian and Hemispheric Regional Ozone and NOx System) operational regional air quality forecast model (Pudykiewicz et al. 1997).
"Ozone forms in places far from where the pollution is actually emitted," says Paula Davidson, the U.S. National Weather Service's manager for air quality forecast capability.
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In this paper advances in air quality forecasting are discussed with an emphasis on data assimilation.
We present the operational air quality forecasting and monitoring system PREV'AIR and its evaluation.
Furthermore, the algorithm's DB implementation enables time sensitive burned area mapping to support operational air quality forecasting.
Prediction models such as impact mitigation strategies, urban air temperature predictions, improved weather forecasting and air quality forecasting have been developed as a result.
As more atmospheric chemical observations become available chemical data assimilation is expected to play an essential role in air quality forecasting.
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