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Specifically, this work aims to answer (1) how predicted mosquito control effectiveness is affected by replacing the classical assumption of a constant mortality hazard with an age dependent mortality hazard and (2) whether these results depend on the EIP.
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The following model explores how age dependent mortality hazards affect the effectiveness of anti-vectorial interventions in reducing disease transmission.
The age dependent mortality model was taken from Styer et al. (2007)'s [34] microcosm study of mosquito mortality rates.
Future transmission models that examine anti-vectorial interventions should incorporate realistic age dependent mortality rates.
A limiting factor in the construction and evaluation of new age-dependent mortality models is the paucity of data characterizing vector mortality patterns, particularly for free ranging vectors in the field.
Age-dependent mortality was modeled using 2002 data[ 18].
In a second smaller study, they confirmed age dependence of the mortality hazard for Ae. aegypti fed blood only, sugar only, or both blood and sugar [39].
Models using an empirically derived age dependent hazard predicted that about double the level of control will be needed to achieve the same proportional reduction in C* as compared to constant hazard models (Figure 6).
Under the proportional hazards specification of the Weibull model and given a set of covariates, Xj, the age-specific mortality hazard is given by: h aget|Xj = ptp−1 exp(β0 + XjβX) where p represents the change in mortality by age.
An age dependent risk of in-hospital mortality has been demonstrated in severe infection [ 40].
In general, populations living in less ideal environmental conditions, either due to high levels of predation or poor climactic conditions (both of which are unlikely to cause mortality in an age dependent fashion), should exhibit hazards that change less with age.
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