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Our mission, should we choose to accept it, is first to find 175-220m hectares of additional cropland by 2030; second, to increase total food production by about 70% by 2050, mostly through improving crop yields; and third, to achieve all this without damaging the land, poisoning ourselves or impairing the health of our finite and already fragile ecosystems.
An increase in the US ethanol production from its 2001 level to 56.78 billion liters requires about 3.75 million hectares of additional cropland when there is no water constraint.
We conclude first that there is substantially less potential additional cropland than is generally assumed once constraints and trade offs are taken into account, and secondly that converting land is always associated with significant social and ecological costs.
This additional cropland will not be evenly distributed across the US due to climatic variation, land availability, and resource requirements (e.g., irrigation).
This graph understates the amount of new cropland grid cell area that will emerge across the globe as additional cropland will be needed to compensate for the cropland that existed as of 2000 but converts to urban area as of 2015.
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It has been estimated that such a future would require an additional 26 million km2 of cropland compared to year 2000 levels (approximately the combined area of Canada and Russia; personal communication with David Tilman).
Animal yards and manure storage facilities at larger facilities, especially modern beef cattle and dairy farms may occupy tens of hectares, often surrounded by additional hundreds of hectares of cropland also treated with manure (Harter et al., 2002).
This estimation is done using several product pools with various time scales of decay (McGuire et al. [2001]) and additional carbon uptake after the abandonment of cropland by vegetation regrowth, which can be affected by the age distribution of vegetation on secondary land (Shevliakova et al. [2009]).
In addition to the mounting pressures to convert pastoral lands to agricultural croplands, this approach also requires additional water and energy resources that could otherwise improve the livelihoods of local communities.
(DOCX 18 KB) 13705_2012_30_MOESM2_ESM.docx Additional file 2 Appendix B. Average NPP-C4 for cropland and for natural land (metric tons of carbon per hectare per year).
These were among the report's recommendations: *Increase the yield on existing cropland to reduce the need for clearing additional forest.
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