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Discover Ludwig"actual probability" is a correct and usable phrase in written English.
It is typically used to refer to the true or exact likelihood of something happening, as opposed to an estimated or predicted probability. Example: The actual probability of winning the lottery is incredibly low, despite what many people believe.
Exact(60)
The tests produce actual probability statements about results.
So the actual probability of a Labour Armageddon may be low.
When the potential impact of a chemical is catastrophic — cancer or birth defects — we tend to act from the gut, ignoring the actual probability of harm.
The possibility that in 2016 the President will be elected by the voters is suddenly looking more like an actual probability.
The actual probability has changed depending on international tensions, but it seems implausible that the chances would be much lower than one in 1,000 per year.
In other words, in the setting of fear, the possibility of recurrence, rather than its actual probability, fuels decisions that, over all, likely cause more harm than good.
Physical risks, I told him, have psychological characteristics that make them feel scarier or less scary, regardless of actual probability or evidence.
An additional consideration for the use of incidence rate is that it assumes a constant probability of disease, which may not reflect actual probability, particularly for conditions whose risk increases with age.
Actual probability values for main outcomes.
The grey dotted line shows the ideal situation where predicted and actual probability are equal.
Their submitted probability, q i, does not have to been their actual probability, p i.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com