How can you come up with accurate forecasts?
For nearly a decade, it turns out, the most accurate forecasts have come from the fringe.
"Without accurate forecasts it is hard to know when to pull that trigger," he said.
"The real challenge is producing meaningful and accurate forecasts early in the campaign".
It has issued 16 accurate forecasts since 2001, though it has yet to contend with a major eruption.
What are, in effect, elaborate computer games might help tech firms spot trends and make more accurate forecasts.
Such images could help meteorologists develop more accurate forecasts and warnings for hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and disruptive solar disturbances.
The projections were made by the United Nations population division, which has a track record of fairly accurate forecasts.
Accurate forecasts are needed to protect the "lives and properties" of people from disasters caused by "abnormal climatic phenomenon", he said.
First Call was soon followed by WhisperNumber.com, which compiles less official but often more accurate forecasts from company insiders and suppliers.
It'll cost £97m and be able to deliver more accurate forecasts in the short, medium and long term, and for more precise locations.
