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How can you come up with accurate forecasts?
Simply averaging polls will get you a highly accurate forecast.
In such an iffy economy, accurate forecasting -- always something of an oxymoron -- is even iffier.
"They're trusting for an accurate forecast, and they didn't get one today," he said.
Mr. Gendreau argues that accurate forecasting is not all that important, anyway.
"We just didn't have the technology to make an accurate forecast and give adequate warning".
"The real challenge is producing meaningful and accurate forecasts early in the campaign".
For nearly a decade, it turns out, the most accurate forecasts have come from the fringe.
"Without accurate forecasts it is hard to know when to pull that trigger," he said.
It could produce more accurate forecasting and more informed policy-making — more science and less guesswork.
It has issued 16 accurate forecasts since 2001, though it has yet to contend with a major eruption.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com