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In March 2011, there was an abrupt epidemic of scarlet fever in the community, with 1534 cases being reported in 2011 (annual incidence of 21.58 cases per 100 000 population) with at least three fatalities and several severe cases requiring intensive care.
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The abrupt upward epidemic curve in the communes bordering Artibonite dramatically contrasts with the progressive epidemic curve in the other communes of Haiti.
The abrupt appearance of epidemic poliomyelitis is illustrated in Figure 1, which shows data from the countries where the first outbreaks were recorded (30).
In addition to the fact that natural populations tend to be fragmented [ 4, 12], increased inbreeding will also result from increased selective pressures such as abrupt environmental changes or epidemics caused by very virulent pathogens, via a reduction in the effective size of populations.
This pattern of illness is apt to result from exposure to an F. tularensis aerosol, which would likely result in an explosive epidemic with an abrupt onset and limited duration (22 ).
The abrupt increase in disease severity across several epidemic seasons of DENV-2 transmission coincided with clade replacement events.
A malaria epidemic is defined as an abrupt increase in malaria transmission that exceeds by far the inter-seasonal variation normally experienced in a given area and often associated with increased morbidity and mortality [ 8].
This association is supported by the abrupt halt of both Canadian and Punjabi epidemics in the same year.
Emergence of new clades of DENV-3 in 1989 and 2000 coincided with abrupt increases in the number of reported dengue cases, implicating this serotype in severe epidemics.
This study design controls for secular trends in study outcomes (for example, the apparent growing epidemic in use of prescription psychotropic drugs outside FDA approved indications) and thereby can attribute abrupt changes to the widely publicized warnings.
Although the simulated results from the modeling exhibited quantitative features similar to the data from the 2008 South Korean AI epidemic, the simulations tended to underestimate the occurrence of outbreaks in ducks and the simulated time course had less abrupt variations than those observed.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com