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But based on the handful of data that is available, we estimate that Mr. Romney will do about 2 points better in likely voter than registered voter surveys.
In general, likely-voter polls tend to find worse numbers for Democrats – typically about 2 points worse than among polls of registered voters.
In yesterday's hectic trading, the Treasury's bellwether 71/4percentnt issue was down by about 2 points, to 94 18/32, to yield 7.72percentt, a level not seen since June.
Before the likely voter adjustment, our model puts Mr. Obama ahead by about 2 points in the average of national polls (similar to the Real Clear Politics average of a 3- points lead).
If the yield curve wasn't so flat, the difference would be about 2 points.
About 2 points of churn could be improved technically by big data analytics alone.
Similar(31)
"I had about 35 points," he said.
Democrats overestimate it by about 40 points.
futures are down about 30 points, and Dow futures are off about 250 points.
But Proposition 23 was soundly defeated, by about 20 points.
Polls show him leading Mr. Bush by about 20 points.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com