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So that suggests oil should be rising relative to gold over time.David Ranson of Wainwright Economics, a gold enthusiast, reckons oil is rising, relative to bullion, at a trend rate of around 3.5% a year.
Europe now has a trend rate of growth that is almost one half of the United States and one quarter that of China and India.
Every economy is thought to have a "trend rate" of sustainable, non-inflationary growth, based on growth in the number of workers and in their productivity.
Productivity growth did indeed slow down from around 2005, he finds, returning to a trend rate near the level from 1973 to 1995.
Or could it be Italy, which has a smaller economy now than it did in 2001, saw the biggest fall in gross domestic product of any G7 country last year, and has a trend rate of growth barely above zero?
The decline in industrial production, said official statisticians, would be sufficient by itself to clip the first estimate for GDP growth in the second quarter from an above-trend rate of 0.9% to a trend rate of 0.6%.
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Marjorie Deane application ReprintsThe report cites three estimates of the extent to which a lower trend rate explains the weak recovery.
Marjorie Deane application Reprints Related topics Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Recessions and depressions United States Economies Central bankingThe report cites three estimates of the extent to which a lower trend rate explains the weak recovery.
The plucking model presumes that after a recession, the economy returns to an underlying trend rate of growth that is determined by the supply of workers, capital and technology.
says Smithers, requires an economy to be growing at an above trend rate.
Growth of 1.75% this year is disappointing, given an underlying trend rate of around 2.5%.
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