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"a substantive risk" is correct and usable in written English.
You can use this phrase to describe a significant or important risk that has a high potential for causing harm or negative impact. Example: The company's decision to invest in the new project carries a substantive risk due to the uncertainty of market demand and potential competition.
Exact(2)
There's a new reality that we're at a substantive risk and under threat for foreign and domestic extremist attacks, both ideological and with other domestic political motivations and emotionally disturbed individuals".
Second order, or 'iatrogenic' risk, [ 7] can contribute uncertainty through either over analysing a negligible risk or failing to recognize a substantive risk.
Similar(58)
Professor David Petley, of the International Landslide Centre at Durham University, warns there is "substantive risk of an outburst" as the water level approaches the top of the dam, with "the potential for a large flood wave to travel downstream as far as Tarbela Dam", 50km northwest of Islamabad.
"I think we feel the individual is potentially at significant risk, and if we can extract the individual without substantive risk to the air crew, and if from our medical evaluations we feel the individual needs to come out now we will do it," said Harry Mahar, the safety and health officer for the office of polar programs at the science foundation.
See articleThe body that oversees banking in China warned that 2010 could see an increase in substantive risks and losses for Chinese banks.
The lower the systolic BP, the lower the risk of complications, and no threshold of systolic BP was observed for a substantive change in risk for any of the outcomes examined.
The study embraced the findings of the FDA and the EFSA, declaring that BPA posed no substantive risks.
More specifically, this paradigm change should allow for a substantive inclusion of risk reduction criteria and approaches in the Sustainable Development Goals that are to be adopted in New York in September 2015 and, more importantly due to its legally-binding nature, also will appear in the new agreement on climate change to be adopted in Paris in December 2015.
Of major relevance is that the KAM appears to be amenable to change with non-surgical treatments such as shoes, gait modification strategies and braces by amounts that would correspond to a substantive reduction in risk of disease progression in knee OA [ 23- 26].
There is large variation between practices in the extent that statins are prescribed to patients at high risk of CVD and a substantive number of patients at low risk of CVD.
Analyses of US lung cancer mortality trends over time using a similar approach suggest that the risk of smoking has increased over the past several decades, and the analyses presented in this paper suggest that an increasing risk of adenocarcinoma makes a substantive contribution to that increase in risk.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com