Every field map, like a financial model or rational forecast, changes the field (i.e., the reality as such) that is mapped for the simple reason that it is communicated, thus making the same map somehow unreliable [52].
If actual inflation goes up, in other words, the rational forecast is simply that it will come down again.
But Mr. Shiller showed that actual stock prices fluctuated much more than any possible rational forecast of prospective profits; he thought that this "excess volatility" result would settle the point.
If there is only one rational forecast, the main reason for having markets disappears!
Psychology is an essential component of rational forecasting.
The transition from prophecy to rational forecasting has been clearly explained, moving from Koselleck [6], by Esposito [23, 24].
A rational attitude in forecasting volcanic hazards should be respectful of the distinct roles of the various actors involved in the management of volcanic crises, and fully acknowledge uncertainty as a fundamental condition upon which forecasts are based.
Complacency on the part of investors, or a rational assessment that political uncertainty probably won't derail an economy forecast to grow by about 3% this year?
Moreover, this knowledge translates into testable hypotheses (falsifiable statements) and accurate forecasts – it is the original version of predictive analytics, except it also includes a rational explanation for understanding what goes on.
The forecasts in Fig. 1 represent purely scientific evaluations by volcano scientists, in a rational approach that accounts for scientific knowledge as well as for the uncertainties accompanying that knowledge.
Fortune-telling, the forecasting of future events or the delineation of character by methods not ordinarily considered to have a rational basis.
