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In reaction to my post, Dean Baker attributed the elderly increase during the recession to a previous trend.
But the evidence is not definitive yet, and this would represent a reversal of a previous trend that had shown Mr. Romney gaining ground there.
Labour market figures show that foreign nationals accounted for 75% of the growth of 342,000 in employment in Britain in the 12 months to June, reversing a previous trend for stronger growth in employment of British workers.
A previous trend of rapid growth has been halted, and a substantial number of international university students come via the UK FE sector, which has seen numbers fall by almost 50% – the full impacts of the new rules on universities have yet to be seen.
But applying the same logic to Japan, where growth has averaged only 0.7% a year over the past seven years, compared with a previous trend rate of 3-4%, one could argue that Japan's output has already fallen by as much as 15-20% relative to its previous trend.
Particularly dangerous in forecasting is the simple extrapolation of a previous trend and the failure to take into account that a trend can bend.
Similar(53)
Overall, the latest situation in the rail freight sector in the EU15 may be indicative of a reversal of the previous trend of a continuously decreasing market share.
Though the values are small and the period does not represent a decade, the figures show a reversal from the previous trend.
The top 1% suffered a much larger drop of 36.3%, substantial enough to suggest the possibility of a break in the previous trend.
The two new California polls also suggest a reversal of the previous trend favoring Republican Meg Whitman.
December's figures showed an improvement but the previous trend was dire; in the third quarter of 2013, the deficit was 5.1% of GDP.
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