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The phrase "a much more probable" is correct and usable in written English.
It can be used when comparing the likelihood of two or more scenarios or outcomes, emphasizing that one is significantly more likely than the others.
Example: "Given the evidence presented, it is a much more probable outcome that the team will win the championship this year."
Alternatives: "far more likely" or "considerably more probable".
Exact(5)
Our formulation is Popperian [ 80] and Bayesian [ 81]: these data have very high probability under the RO hypothesis, which is thus a much more probable explanation than others of how the two aaRS Classes arose.
Combine that with the fact that he's a massive radio star in his own right, and Hannity is a much more probable walkout.
"Wires" says that the electric current running through cattle-fencing has a "muscle-shredding violence" (if this were true, the countryside would be strewn with the bodies of incapacitated cows and farmworkers); and in the evening of "At Grass" a "groom's boy" comes to collect a horse from a field, carrying "bridles" rather than a much more probable halter.
Under direct, frequency-dependent transmission (ε = 1), the relationship between the initial prevalence growth rate and peak prevalence was variable, and host extinction was a much more probable outcome when compared to the other functional forms of transmission (Figure 3, column 3).
For the conserved protein data, this study demonstrated that UCA is a much more probable model than competing independent ancestry models.
Similar(55)
He, too, recorded that he "had no direct evidence to support such a scenario" but he went further than Quinlan and considered that an accident was "very much more probable" than foul play.
Global health experts warn that a pandemic threat could be as deadly as a nuclear attack — and is much more probable.
Oncogenic mutations that are highly improbable in a small population of dysregulated cells can become much more probable in a large population.
Imagining a one-way path to an intelligence explosion — no matter how fascinating or how far in the future — can leave out a lot of messy, but much more probable, details.
Commercial success is much more probable with a "ready-for-sale" product (for example, reagents that can be produced immediately in the lab) than with a new technology that, with refinement and years of clinical trials, may yield a wonder drug eventually.
Patients with a cardiac variant of MPS VI are much more probable to be found in cardiology clinics [ 18, 19].
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com