Your English writing platform
Discover LudwigExact(8)
It's increasingly difficult to reconcile a high climate sensitivity (say over 4C) with the observational evidence for the planetary energy balance over the industrial era.
Anyway, there have now been several recent papers showing much the same – numerous factors including: the increase in positive forcing (CO2 and the recent work on black carbon), decrease in estimated negative forcing (aerosols), combined with the stubborn refusal of the planet to warm as had been predicted over the last decade, all makes a high climate sensitivity increasingly untenable.
I have argued for years that the odds on a high climate sensitivity are largely irrelevant to the warming we should expect over the coming century, and I certainly never suggested to David that my assessment of the odds on any particular level of warming by 2100 had changed.
And surprisingly, many remain unaware that travel is a high climate impact activity.
The invasive species had a high climate match in 50 85% without a permanent water source, and 60 90% with permanent water source.
Bioenergy crops had a high climate match (EI≥30) in at least some part of 20 85% of US ecoregions without a permanent water supply, and 35 90% with an irrigation factor (Table 4).
Similar(51)
What we show in our paper is that if we take his result, and re-analyze the 20th-century observational record then we get a higher climate sensitivity than [studies] which assumed that all forcing was equally effective.
"The (existing) models were built at a time when it was thought that this aerosol cooling was higher so the models needed to have a higher climate sensitivity or they would have been chucked out as not matching historical warming".
Other factors being equal, a higher climate sensitivity means that more warming will occur for a given increase in greenhouse gas forcing.
Sure, current rates of warming in the highest-response models are looking iffy, for reasons that may or may not be relevant to their forecasts for 2100, but at the rate emissions are rising, you don't need a particularly high climate response to get to 4C by 2100 and 5C not long thereafter.
Instead of making sound, sober long-term investments in renewables and efficiency that will reap exponential rewards, we are partying it up on a cheap gas credit card with a very high climate-impacts rate.
Write better and faster with AI suggestions while staying true to your unique style.
Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com