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This isn't a blind guess; there just aren't a lot of pianists who have so much organized at such a young age.
And yet, Arrow and his team soon realized that their forecasts were no better than a blind guess.
But let me be specific as to how I see it playing out...or not (I said it was a blind guess).
Observes were informed that in many cases the global motion direction might not be seen at all, in which case the discrimination response must be a blind guess.
By exploiting the long integration time of noisy motion stimuli, and by forcing human observers to make difficult speeded decisions – sometimes a blind guess – about stimulus direction, we traced the temporal buildup of motion discrimination capability and perceptual awareness, as assessed trial by trial through direct rating.
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In 1790, when the French Revolution still seemed to promise a bloodless utopia, Burke predicted in his Reflections on the Revolution in France and not by any lucky blind guess but by an analysis of its rejection of tradition and inherited values that the revolution would descend into terror and dictatorship.
In blind guessing, the attacker performs a brute-force attack without considering the question.
In highly efficient markets, however, educated guesses are not more accurate than blind guesses.
Our forecasts were better than blind guesses, but not by much.
Just and Aspinall [22] describe guessing in three categories, which are "Blind guessing", "Focused Guessing" and "Observation".
But when he followed up, he found that his judgments were little better than blind guesses.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com