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Unfortunately, this is one area where the amateurs seem to have a better forecasting record.
But they are still worth considering, especially because early odds have had a better forecasting record than early polls in recent years, says Mr. Wolfers, who spends much of his time studying prediction markets.
A better forecasting system is also in place.
Moreover, it is obvious that a lower pinball loss indicates a better forecasting result.
This is not the case for the 1-year ahead forecasts (columns 5 and 6), where pension funds show a better forecasting accuracy.
In order to obtain a better forecasting result, more information about the load system is required to explore the internal regularity of the fluctuating system load.
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Our approach is to employ an ensemble of forecasters and aggregate their combined forecasting power to provide a better forecast for (X_i) (as shown in Fig. 4).
For this reason, T wt provides a better forecast than T av.
However, a better forecast needs inclusion of the data errors as well.
If a better forecast of extreme levels is possible, and if this forecast is accepted by regulating bodies, it can actually provide significant economic value.
But here is one prediction you can count on: you will be hearing these numbers thrown around a lot all year long until a better forecast comes along.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com