But what swung the election was that many CDU supporters voted tactically for the FDP, giving it a record 9.9% yet eroding the CDU vote so much that the two parties' tally fell below the SPD/Green share (see article).In this section The gambler Afrighanistan?
The second trouble was news that the CDU had offered sponsors meetings with Mr Rüttgers in exchange for campaign contributions.
The most extreme forecast had been that the CDU would be trounced to the point that Merkel would have to consider her position.
It is equally improbable that the CDU premiers will club together to oust Ms Merkel.It is more likely that the grand coalition will muddle through.
On March 27th they ousted Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats from the government of Baden-Württemberg, a state that the CDU had run for almost 60 years.
Yet their near-victory demonstrates that the CDU can win, even if it lacks a charismatic candidate, if it stops infighting and focuses on campaigning.
That is because the CSU knows two things: first, that the CDU would not govern Germany so often without Bavaria's CSU; and second, that the CSU also needs Mrs Merkel's popularity to do well in Bavaria.
When the two parties emerged in the aftermath of the second world war, they agreed that the CDU would never enter Bavaria, nor the CSU the other German states, but that both would form one group in the national parliament.
All of a sudden, it no longer seems so obvious that the CDU will win the election in 2006, nor even the state of North-Rhine Westphalia in May 2005 (see article).
And it seems all-but certain that the CDU will emerge with the most seats in parliament, even if it does not manage to secure enough for an absolute majority.Other than this, however, all bets are off.
