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A sustained downturn in demand "would put pressure on our freight business," Mr. Pratt said.
Some economists think the idea of overinvestment leading to a sustained downturn is exaggerated.
We are more exposed than any other major economy to a significant rise in global protectionism and to a sustained downturn in financial and related international services.
Still, economists said, spending by tourists was unlikely to offset the effects of a sustained downturn on Wall Street, especially if it brought an end to the boom in the city's housing market.
Professor Baker said a sustained downturn has the potential to make that less of a rarity, perhaps providing more of a threat to the electoral status quothan exists now.
"We are not going to wake up one day and totally revalue the loans," says Gary Perlin, Capital One's chief financial officer.If a sudden subprime-style meltdown in the credit-card market is improbable, the risks of a sustained downturn are much more real.
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He acknowledges that he has never been through a sustained market downturn but says he is confident that he would survive any Wall Street bloodletting.
Elsewhere, pub groups were hit by two factors: the prospect of a sustained consumer downturn and their hefty levels of debt.
If there is a sustained economic downturn, we will most certainly see more layoffs -- and workers will not be sure that they will find new jobs quickly.
Indeed, popular support seems to be sewn up for Putin, though an oil-driven sustained economic downturn could provide a serious test.
Mr. Cameron faces many vexations: a sustained economic downturn that his austerity program has so far failed to reverse; a disillusioned electorate; rumblings of unhappiness from his party's right wing over issues like Europe and abortion rights.
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